Prime Numbers takes a weekly look at the best bets in the upcoming Colorado Buffalos game. Coach Prime takes his undefeated Buffalos to Eugene, Oregon to take on the equally undefeated Oregon Ducks in their biggest test of an already eventful season. Let’s take our equally undefeated Buffs betting season there as well with this week’s prime number (5) of Prime Numbers!

Last Week: 3-0-0
Season: 5-0-0

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PRIME NUMBERS: Week 4 – #19 Colorado Buffalos (3-0, 0-0) at #10 Oregon Ducks (3-0, 0-0)

Content:

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

1 – Shedeur Sanders Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-205)

Sanders has eclipsed this mark in each of Colorado’s first three games, sandwiching a pair of four-touchdown performances around a two-toss game against Nebraska. Oregon will be the team’s and Sanders’ toughest test so far but that only adds to the likelihood of this prop hitting as the Buffalos won’t stop throwing. Even if Colorado wins, Sanders threw for two scores even in their easiest victory. The odds already reflect expected probability but take advantage of this before it gets bet up to 2.5 TDs. If you can’t get in at 1.5 then you might rethink the bet as Oregon has only allowed one of three opposing quarterbacks this season to throw more multiple touchdowns (Tyler Shough – Texas Tech) and Tech coincidentally is the only Oregon opponent to even score multiple touchdowns this season.

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2 – Shedeur Sanders Over 335.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Sanders averages 417 yards per game so far this season and has yet to throw for fewer than 348 yards in a game. He has also his the Over on his respective passing yards prop every week. Vegas apparently thinks they still don’t have to this week against Oregon. However, I feel that however this game ends, Sanders will either reach this number trying to come back or will reach it shocking the world once again. Colorado also runs their offense almost exclusively through Sanders’ arm. Colorado’s leading rusher, true freshman Dylan Edwards, although averaging 5.4 yards per carry, has only carried the ball 25 times for 136 yards. Conversely, Edwards has caught 14 balls and he is the 4th leading receiver on the team behind two receivers who have as many or more receptions as he has carries. Full disclosure: Sanders’ passing yards total has dropped each week but even factoring that in I still love this prop.

3 – Xavier Weaver Over 96.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Weaver has gone over this mark in every game and Vegas has struggled to keep up with the senior wideout. Even with books upping the prop nearly 20 yards from last week (78.5) to this week, I still think Weaver goes over this number, if for no other reason than sheer volume. This volume would be two-fold as Colorado will both have to throw to keep pace with the Ducks but with Travis Hunter out Sanders will have to rely even more on the upperclassman. Last week against Colorado State (98 yards) marked the closest that Weaver has come to not covering this 96.5 number and he still would’ve hit. Through three games, Weaver is averaging 128.6 yards on 8.3 receptions so regardless of what side of the outcome you are as a bettor, expect this prop will hit for a fourth straight contest. However, Vegas appears to have caught up to Weaver so this may be the last week to really take advantage.

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4 – Colorado +21 (-110)

Deion Sanders has only lost one game in his head coaching career by 21+ points and that was all the way back in the 2021 Cricket Celebration Bowl where his Jackson State team fell to South Carolina State 31-10 and even that loss would have resulted in a push. Coach Prime has a 30-6 career record as a head coach and even though this is by far his toughest opponent, so was TCU where they were also three touchdown dogs and won outright in the first game of the year. I don’t know if Colorado can go into Eugene and come away with a W but considering that Coach Prime is 35-0-1 against a 21-point spread, I think there is value in this number.

Bet to Fade…but not why you might think

5 – Colorado Moneyline (+650)

BETTOR BEWARE! Value may not be what it appears! This moneyline opened with Colorado being back where they were in Week 1. At +900 if you are as high on the Buffs as Deion is, there would appear to be a lot of value. However, even the value is already slipping away as the moneyline almost instantly moved down to +675 in just the first day. This is also despite the spread remaining at 21 which is interesting. This means that despite all of the money being bet on Colorado to win outright, there has not been the same heavy money bet on the Buffs to cover the three-touchdown spread. This indicates that the moneyline movement is more emotionally charged money. The difference this time is that the 3-0 and surprises are now baked in and that is why I don’t like this bet. The true value isn’t there because it’s being bet down. Even at the opening +900, they will also be without the services of rare two-way phenom Travis Hunter, a huge part of their hot start and season-opening upset of TCU. He is a loss on both sides of the ball and many predictive models have the probability of the Buffs’ winning this game in the single digits. However, the implied probability of Colorado outright being +900 is 10%, and at +650 it is 13%. Essentially the moneyline has become so saturated that odds that should sit closer to +2000 are only returning +650.

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All that being said, yes, betting Colorado on the money is an emotionally charged bet but it’s also a bet on Coach Prime. People keep betting against him and he keeps making those who back him money. Bettors will keep coming back to the well for more for the same reason. Coach Prime said it best back in ’94: Must be the moneyyyyyy!

Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.

Top 5 College Football Picks for Colorado vs. Oregon (Week 4)