BetIQ Daily: Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 TNF Picks, Ohio State vs. Xavier and NBA

BetIQ Daily: Patriots vs. Falcons Week 11 TNF Picks, Ohio State vs. Xavier and NBA

Picks for Thursday November 18 include an NFL over/under pick and parlay, a college basketball over/under, and an NBA moneyline.

November 18, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

The Patriots have been known to win some playoffs pools (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our data-driven models and analysis, plus betting-related insights curated by our staff.

Thursday, November 18 (#1)

Tonight’s Thursday Night Football showdown features a Super Bowl replay from five years ago, though we don’t see the 2021 edition of Patriots vs. Falcons playing out the same way.

There are also a couple notable NBA games and a full college basketball slate. We’ve included a pick for the final night of the Gavitt Games between the Big Ten and Big East.

3 Picks For Today

1) New England/Atlanta UNDER 47 — NFL Game Total

At post time, this is one of our top three O/U model picks for Week 11.Patriots are 2nd in NFL in scoring defense and playing better lately.In 8 games with O/U line under 50, Pats have allowed only 14.75 pts/game.Atlanta has scored only 17.3 pts/game in 4 games w/o WR Calvin Ridley.Atlanta may not have Cordarrelle Patterson, one of few threats on offense.

Bonus Parlay: Game total Under 47 + Matt Ryan Under 248.5 Passing Yards + Kyle Pitts Under 61.5 Receiving Yards

Our modeling has Ryan’s yardage prop a bit high given total expected points.Bill Belichick is a master of limiting opponents’ top threats.Pitts should be a focus for Pats defense with Ridley out, Patterson out/limited.

2) Ohio State/Xavier UNDER 139 —NCAAB Game Total

Our over/under model (top model historically) likes the Under here.All six Gavitt Games so far this week have gone Under the game total.Our models had five of those as Under leans/picks, with two rated playable.Both teams play at below-average pace and limit teams in transition.So far this year both teams rank in the bottom 100 in 3pt % allowed.Some regression there could mean fewer points per possession.

3) San Antonio +119 — NBA Moneyline

Our model picks for NBA moneylines are 40-22 (+9.0 units) so far this season.Minnesota is coming off a 10-point home win, playing B2B for only 2nd time.Minnesota lost second game of first back-to-back by 27 as a 7-point underdog.Minnesota is 0-4 ATS after an outright win so far this season

Daily Musings

Regression Session: Tennessee Titans

Comparing current public perception of the Titans (now tied for best record in the NFL) to their actual performance data, it sure feels like Tennessee is a candidate for regression over the second half of the NFL season.

The Tennessee Titans are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS so far this season.They are a perfect 5-0 SU in games where they were the betting underdog.So the Titans have looked even better in games they weren’t expected to win.Those included primetime wins against notable opponents like KC, LAR, BUF.

Now consider this:

Tennessee only ranks 8th in our predictive ratings (driven by scoring differential).The Titans rank 1st in the NFL yards gained per point, at 12.5.That means they have scored  more points than their yards gained would suggest.Tennessee is tied for second in non-offensive touchdowns so far this year.Tennessee is also one of 11 teams that has yet to give up a non-offensive TD.Non-offensive TDs are often unpredictable, luck-based events.In 2 games w/o RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee gained only 225 yards/game.Meanwhile, the Titans gave up 360 yards/game (yet won both games).Tennessee is 4-1 in close games, including 2-1 in overtime.

We’ll see whether or not the regression gods bring the Titans a bit back to earth down the home stretch.

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